Saturday's five-game slate opens this evening with the New Orleans Pelicans hosting the Denver Nuggets. With the Pelicans enduring a five-game losing streak and a recent trade demand from a dissatisfied vet, it's fitting to find them as double-digit home underdogs.
The actionable news for fantasy managers from this matchup includes the potential return of center Yves Missii, who could help with blocks and boards right away. With Dejounte Murray asking out, it's relevant to note second-year guard Jeremiah Fears has been more productive than even Cooper Flagg on the Player Rater the past 15 days. Fears is still a free agent in just over a third of ESPN leagues.
The only other game with blowout ingredients has the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Chicago Bulls as 15.5-point favorites, tied for the third-largest spread of the young season. In blowouts, starters can lose significant fourth-quarter minutes, while reserves often see extended run.
However, the trailing team's primary players may continue producing as they chase the deficit. Identifying which players might benefit from the changed rotations and which lose valuable playing time can prove key.
Today's rare matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Memphis Grizzlies offers a look at two teams that run deep rotations with a variety of schematic looks. Two players on the Nets earn endorsements below. A compelling matchup in Miami has the Heat hosting the Detroit Pistons in what should be a telling test for a Heat team still trying to find an identity.
The top game of the day features the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers as slight favorites. Dallas being slight road favorites suggests we might not see Evan Mobley as he deals with a toe injury that held him out of last night's loss to the Heat. Both teams are looking to make a statement tonight.
With an eye toward uncovering compelling betting angles and fantasy decisions, let's take a look at the day ahead in the NBA.
Fantasy stream team
Players available in at least 50% of leagues
Day'Ron Sharpe, C, Brooklyn Nets (rostered in 26.1% of ESPN leagues)
Playing time can get in the way of Sharpe's production. Brooklyn, like Memphis, relies on a deep rotation focused on fresh legs and relentless energy. Sharpe can stuff the box score even when his minutes sit in the mid-20s. Given the size of the Grizzlies' frontcourt, Sharpe's playing time could rise. A look through his game logs reveals Sharpe can really produce when given the opportunity.
Saddiq Bey, SF, New Orleans Pelicans (35.7%)
Most Villanova alumni in the NBA do a bit of everything. Bey, an outlier Wildcat, does a lot of scoring and not a ton else. That's ok because New Orleans is affording him the playing time and shot diet to sustain value. This reads like a game where Bey could get up extra shots in the likelihood of a blowout.
Daniss Jenkins, PG, Detroit Pistons (33.8%)
Here are Jenkins' last six scoring outputs, ending with the most recent: 6, 2, 5, 31, 22, and 21. This reveals how hot Jenkins is from the floor at the moment, but also increased trust regarding playing time and touches. We should recognise the floor is, based on this scoring log, quite low. The Heat have one high-end, point-of-attack defender in Davion Mitchell, although Jenkins could thrive in other perimeter matchups against Miami.
Bones Hyland, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (5.0%)
Irrational confidence can be a real boon in the right context. Hyland loves the look of his own shot, which can be really fun for fantasy purposes if you can find those specific spots in the schedule. Today's game against a porous Chicago defense reads like one of these moments that could afford Hyland the minutes and shots to go off.
Jim's bets to make on Saturday
Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jeremiah Fears OVER 24.5 combined points and assists (-119)
Fears is, well, fearless with the ball in his hands. No longer just hunting his own looks like he did in his first few months in the league last season, he's posted at least five dimes in eight of nine games and should soak up more minutes, shots, and creation possessions with Murray's situation.
Egor Demin OVER 2.5 made 3-pointers (+158)
The potential return reflects the risk of backing a guard who has played just one game-and only 22 minutes-over the past two weeks because of injury. Viewed entering the league as a drive-first operator with limited outside craft, Demin instead does much of his work from deep. He is in line to get up plenty of shots against a Memphis team that sits eighth in pace.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
7 p.m. ET
Money line: Nuggets -620 | Pelicans +454
Total: 234.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 10.9, straight up 80%, 238.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Julian Strawther (OUT)
Pelicans: Bryce McGowens (GTD); Trendon Watford (GTD); Trey Murphy III (GTD); Yves Missi (GTD); Dejounte Murray (OUT)
Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers
7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Mavericks -1.5 (-114) | Cavaliers +1.5 (-106)
Money line: Mavericks -130 | Cavaliers +110
Total: 231.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 5.1, straight up 66%, 231.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Max Christie (GTD); Morez Johnson Jr. (GTD); Dereck Lively II (OUT); Sergio de Larrea (OUT); Tarik Biberovic (OUT)
Cavaliers: Evan Mobley (GTD); Nae'Qwan Tomlin (OUT); Sam Merrill (OUT)
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET
Money line: Pistons -203 | Heat +169
Total: 228.5 (-113 O, -107 U)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 1.5, straight up 55%, 230.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Ugonna Onyenso (GTD); Isaiah Joe (OUT); Jalen Duren (OUT)
Heat: Klay Thompson (GTD); Pelle Larsson (GTD)
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET
Money line: Nets +131 | Grizzlies -155
Total: 228.5 (-107 O, -113 U)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies by 5.1, straight up 66%, 229.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Mikel Brown Jr. (GTD); Nolan Traore (GTD)
Grizzlies: Quinten Post (GTD); Zach Edey (GTD); Scotty Pippen Jr. (OUT); Richie Saunders (OUT)
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET
Money line: Bulls +640 | Timberwolves -970
Total: 235.5 (-105 O, -115 U)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 16.6, straight up 89%, 236.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Dailyn Swain (GTD); Jalen Smith (GTD); Caleb Wilson (OUT)
Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo (OUT); Anthony Edwards (OUT)